The perils of market predictions

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 10, 2024.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

The Nasdaq outperforms
U.S. stocks ended Friday mixed. The S&P 500 was flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2% for its seventh straight day of losses and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.12%. Shares of Broadcom jumped 24%, launching it into the trillion-dollar market capitalization club. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 fell 0.53% to end the week in the red, snapping a three-week winning streak.

OpenAI opens up about Musk
OpenAI co-founder Elon Musk pushed to create a new for-profit structure for the company in 2017, OpenAI alleged in a blog post. However, “when he didn’t get majority equity and full control, he walked away,” wrote OpenAI alongside screenshots of Musk’s email. In November, Musk asked a federal court to block OpenAI from converting to a for-profit entity.

Tech companies donate to Trump
Technology companies that have a history of clashes with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump are donating to his inauguration. Meta donated $1 million, the company confirmed to CNBC, Amazon is planning to donate the same amount, according to The Wall Street Journal and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is making a personal donation also of the same amount, according to the company.

South Korea president impeached
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on Saturday after 204 lawmakers in the National Assembly voted in favor of the motion. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will serve as acting president. On Sunday, Han spoke with U.S. President Joe Biden, and the country’s finance ministry said it would continue monitoring markets.

[PRO] Eyes on rates and prices
Interest rates and inflation are in focus this week. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting ends Wednesday, while the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation because it reflects how consumers actually spend money, comes out on Friday.

The bottom line

A near-surefire of figuring out where markets are heading is to make a prediction — and disregard it.

The S&P 500 may have slipped 0.6% last week, snapping its three-week winning streak. But it’s still up almost 27% this year, shattering the 6,000 level for the first time on its journey upward.

That’s way ahead of forecasts made by top financial strategists at the end of 2023, notes CNBC’s Pia Singh. JPMorgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, for instance, expected the broad-based index to close the year at just 4,200. Even the most optimistic prediction — a 5,200 target from John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer — didn’t capture the exuberant stock rally this year.

And that’s why even though market strategists anticipate the S&P to finish 2025 at 6,630, according to the average forecast from the CNBC Market Strategist Survey, investors should take it with a pinch of salt. Granted, there’s positive sentiment bubbling among investors, thanks to Trump’s high regard for the stock market as a barometer for his presidential tenure, steadily loosening monetary policy, the prospect of lower corporate taxes, among other factors. But, in markets — as in life — the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

Inflation might make an unwelcome return — like measles and possibly polio in the U.S. — because of Trump’s promised tariffs and the tit-for-tat trade wars that could ensue. Indeed, inflation already “looks a little stuck,” said Goldman Sachs’ vice chairman Robert Kaplan, previously president of the Dallas Fed.

Still, despite my skepticism of predictions, I’d love it if Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian proves to be a prescient market forecaster. Imagine ending 2025 with the S&P at Subramanian’s target of 6,666.